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Look for several states to rejigger congressional districts in the wake of the Supreme Court's 7-2 ruling upholding the Texas legislature's 2003 decision to draw a new map. The Court made it clear that states can rewrite boundaries whenever they want, not just after the Census every 10 years. That means the congressional landscape in Washington can change every time one party gains control over a state's government. Although the Supreme Court's decision is a big victory for Republicans, and specifically for former Senate Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas, who engineered the redistricting, redistricting by other states may have the GOP ruing the day.
New maps may well put more Democrats in the House of Representatives, possibly enough to tip the balance of power from Republicans to Democrats. We expect Illinois, New Mexico, New Jersey and New York to wind up with Democrats in control of both the governor's mansion and the state legislature after the November elections. So redistricting in those states might shift enough seats to the Democratic column to give that party a majority. The elections could also put the Democratic Party in the driver's seat in Maryland, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, though it's not clear that a majority of state lawmakers would want to undertake redrawing the boundaries of congressional districts. Only three states, Georgia, Indiana and Missouri, could potentially add Republican districts.
Redrawing political maps is costly, disruptive to voters and controversial, leading some experts to say that the significance of the high court's ruling is being overblown and that there will be less redistricting than some fear—and others hope for. They point out that public advocates will argue against gerrymandering, complaining that it strengthens incumbents, making it harder for challengers of an opposing party. And it will increase partisanship and make it tougher for moderates to win.
In addition, the Court, in a separate 5-4 decision, objected to one portion of the new Texas map. It said that one district in southwestern Texas was unacceptable because it separated the Hispanic vote, denying Hispanics a majority district in violation of the Voting Rights Act. That district will have to be withdrawn. Other legislatures will have to be careful to toe the same line in gerrymandering their state districts.
Don't expect a rush of action. The process of redistricting takes months, if not years.
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